Breeders Cup - Saturday!!!

In my own perfect world, I shall be awoken tomorrow with a mostly empty bottle of kettel, top hat and monocle in disaray, and lucy pinder wearing only a sheet after my financial gains on the Friday card. In case that DOESN'T happen, and most likely even if it does, it's off to a full day of racing that makes even the most degenerate gambler, in this case, lets call him me, get excited. On to the races...

Marathon

We start today with a race so new, it doesn't even have a sponsor yet, next year, look for the Randy Marathon, where the horses will run, and I will drink. Should be good times for all the participants. For this year, really tough not to like the favorite, Sixties Icon, coming off a win at Ascot, which is plently impressive, and this field is nothing scary. I'm going to roll the dice with a heavy underdog though and try to hit a bomb with Muhannak, while I doubt the 20-1 ML stands, 15-1 should be plently, he absolutely LOVES the poly, winning 3 of his last 4 on it, and losing by a half length in the 4th. His form looks to be incresingly better. I'm also throwing Cedar Mountainin the mix who almost took a G2 at Hollywood last time out, and I always respect a Drysdale horse.

1. Muhannak 2. Sizties Icon 3. Cedar Mountain

Turf Sprint

I'm not going to overthink this. Mr. Nightlinger has won his last 5, and is won 5-6 on turf. Him getting 6-1 is almost sinful and makes me think something's up. BUT, even 4-1 seems like a solid play. Horse who is the x-factor is Idiot Proof, went to Dubai in March, and lost to arguably the best sprinter in the world by a length and a half. Only lost to the favorite, Get Funky by a length in his return race home, and was simply outclassed in his last. This field isn't nearly as strong as what he's seen. Finally, I'm going with a local trainer who's entry, True to Tradition, have won his last 2 in impressive fashion.

1. Mr Nightlinger 2. Idiot Proof 3. True to Tradition

Dirt Mile

Another race that I'm really not going to over think. Simply put, Well Armed has defeated most of this field, and is a VERY deserving favorite. Sometimes you just have to eat the chalk of the field. I have to put Lewis Michael to hit the board, as his trainer has just been on FIRE this year. ANd 6-7 have seen him either in the winners circle or placing. The rest of this field looks the same to me, so I'll go with a horse who is used to this level of competition and just ran a blistering :45 4f workout, in Surf Cat. But if anything I'm hoping to get Well Armed at 3-1 and a stone exacta with Lewis Michael. Side Note: Why the hell is this still called the Dirt Mile when it's now run over a synthrtic surface, I hear it's still 80% dirt, just seems like false advertising to me.

1. Well Armed 2. Lewis Michael 3. Surf Cat

Mile

And yet, they don't call this the Turf Mile, go firgure. We get our first look stateside at superhorse Goldikova, the filly is trying her luck against the boys, and looks to be extremely formiditable, much more than the other filly Precious Kitten, who looks to be outclassed today, and I wonder why Frankel didn't try to find a softer spot with her in yesterdays card. Horse I think with the best chance to take down the import is Kip Deville, the defending champ, and who ran over everyone until he found some soft grass last time out. Something tells me that Dutrow wants this race, as it's his best chance to have his picture taken today, add to the fact I get 5-1? I'm in. The Irish import, Whatsthescript has been very impressive over here under the eye of John Sadler, and figures to have a say in this as well. Looks like a 3 horse race, hint, hint, trifecta box, hint.

1. Kip Deville 2. Goldikova 3. Whatsthescript

Juvenile

We get our first real look at the horses who some will be running for the roses next May, and rendering it virtually impossible to know how they will fare under the big lights. Personally, from all reports, Square Eddie, is the one generating the most buzz, and is coming off a stunning win over poly his last out. Next tier looks to be the ongoing battle of Street Hero and Midshipman. They have squared off in their last 3, with Ship winning the first 2 before Hero turned the tide on him last out. Sign of his improvement or his lucky break? Too tough to tell. I DO know that Street Hero's sire, Street Cry produced Street Sense, who won this race 2 years ago. Only horse I can make a great case for is, once again, the Irish shipper Bushranger, but the surface concerns me.

1. Square Eddie 2. Street Hero 3. Midshipman

Juvenile Turf

Seems to have a lot more talent in this race, then the one before it, but 2 shippers really help that cause. 4 horses really jump off the page at me in this one. In oder of post position... Westphalia, anytime I see Aidan O'Brien, I take notice. Westy is coming off a nice G2 win, but is untested at a mile. Paddy the Pro has won his last 2, drops weight, and is a 1st time lasik, the latter of which should help him with the distance problem. Bittel Road has never lost and has Pletcher/Velazquez. Finally, Grand Adventure also hasn't lost, and has the best jockey at SA. For the life of me I can't see why Grand Aventure isn't the favorite. So I'll take my 5-1 and hope it holds. Something has to give in the clash of unbeatens, and while if I see the track showing a bias toward closers, I'd take Bittel Road, as his closing kick is among the best in this field, I don't think there is enough early speed for this race to breakdown. Don't overlook Donativum though, who is coming off a win in a 1.7 million allowence race.

1. Grand Adventure 2. Westphalia 3. Paddy the Pro 4. Bittel Road

Sprint

The race of the fragile. The best horses in this field have 3 races COMBINED this year. I keep going back to the defending champ, Midnight Lute, who has raced once this year, and it was 10th. So why do I like him you ask? I invite you to look at what he's done at this distance. Including a FREAK of a beyer at Toga last year at 7f. Simply impossible not to include Cost of Freedom who is perfect at this distance in his career, and beat 2 of his biggest challengers in todays race. I simply don't think Street Boss is fast enough. His wins aren't against the likes of these. So I'll finish my tri with Fabuloous Strike, who's only prep this year was in the Slop at the Vosburg, and missed the win by a head bob, but if he's on his game, I wouldn't be surprised.

1. Midnight Lute 2. Cost of Freedom 3. Fabulous Strike

Turf

The European invasion continues!!! Very wothy favorite here, as Soldier of Fortune has only lost to one of the best horses in the world in Zarkava (yes, I'm bummed he didn't make the trip over here. I hear he's a special horse), and Youmzain (who got 2nd in the Arc) this year. Absolutely no shame in either of those, and considering I don't see either name in this race, and fully know that across the pond they have a distinct class advantage on the grass, tough not to like. I'm also high on a previous champ, Red Rocks, who last time out defeated this little horse named CURLIN!!! Granted, it was to see what Curlin had over the grass, but anytime you beat the 10 million dollar man, it deserves mention. While Better Talk Now is a great story, as the old man (he's 9) keeps collecting checks, I can't see him hitting the board in this race. Not against these foes. While Grand Couturier sports freakishly good BSF's his last 2, both came over poor footing. If we get a random downpour, feel free to single him in this race, but on the hard turf of Santa Anita, I don't think he'll factor. The buzz over at otb's in England is Eagle Mountain who has been bet down BIG TIME in this race. They think he's the real deal, and have wagered accordingly. I'm going with a bomb to finish my tri in this one, and alert you to Dancing Forever. I'm willing to throw out his last 2, based on the weather conditions of the day. But on firm tracks, his record suddenly looks a lot better than his odds will dictate, having won 2 of 3, while losing by a neck to a solid Einstein in the 3rd.

1. Soldier of Fortune 2. Red Rocks 3. Dancing Forever. 4. Eagle Mountain

Classic

It's all Curlin, all the time. Rightfully so may I add. The 10 million (/dr evil voice) dollar man, is making his swan song, and the possibility of the epic shown down between Big Brown won't happen (btw... Curlin would have crushed him), it's still cool the connections decided to run him one more time for the public. I really didn't think they would after BB retired, not wanting to risk him over the Poly, but they did, and it's his race to lose. It's incredibly difficult to make a compelling case against him in this race. All of the overseas horses are untested at this distance, and are looking to try and catch lightning in a bottle to bolster stud fees down the line. Ravens Pass is coming off a G1 win at Ascot, while Fairbanks and Colonel John are trying their luck after wins in the Hollywood Gold Cup and Travers, respectively. The ultimate x-factor is the Japanese horse, Casino Drive, who I was looking to make a mint off of in the Belmont, but bowed out with a small injury, and had a quick prep in a small ALW race here at Santa anita a few weeks back. Distance should absolutely not be a problem, but no one really knows how good this horse is, or will be. Tough not to think Go Between won't hit the board, winning the Pacific Classic over a solid Well Armed last race, and has Mott/Gomez, who both deserve respect. He's also either won or placed in all 6 Synth starts. But this race is all about Curlin. Any other horse that crosses the line first will have to be considered an upset of upsets.

1. Curlin 2. Go Between 3. Colonel John 4. Ravens Pass

enjoy the races!!!!!

Breeders Cup Friday - Ladies Edition!!!

I won't get into the new format of spreading it over 2 days, the surface, etc. You can read about that anywhere, you want to make straight cash homey! Lets get right into the Friday card, and we'll do Saturdays tomorrow....

Filly & Mare Sprint

Tough race to start Breeders Cup. Only 4 out of the 14 I can consider a throw out, so I won't even bold their names, but Miraculous Miss, Jazzy, Tizzy's Tune, and La Tee aren't going to see a nickel of my money thrown their way. So lets jump into the star and favorite of the race, Indian Blessing , she's trying to become the first horse to win 2 different BC races, and is coming into the race in top form. My big question on her is if she likes the surface, workouts haven't been anything special, but based on talent alone, it's impossible not to play her in the top 3. Zaftig is the ultimate question mark going into this race, she absolutely ran away from the favorite last time out, but that was all the way back in June, and has gone unraced since. I'd be absolutely sick if she wins this race by 4 lengths (very possible) and I didn't play her due to the layoff, the bullet she fired goign around SA only helps solidify my belief, at 8-1, she's a must play. To round out my ex's and tri's... there are a lot of horses who I can make very strong angles for... starting with Magnificience, I can't get over her first 2 races, incredible numbers and both over this track. Hate the rail, but I think she stalks and puts up a big race here. It's tough not to like a horse with 3 G1 victories this year, and if it's a hot pace I see Intangaroo coming like a freight train down the lane to be a major player. Dearest Trickski has won 7 of 8 races and is perfect over Santa Anita, all while getting 15-1, and Ventura has some extremely consistent Beyer's. Indyanne figures to be the one everyone is going to have to catch, and she could wire the field. I'm going to box 4 horses in here to try and cover my bases...

1. Zaftig 2. Indian Blessing 3. Magnificience 4. Dearest Trickski

Juvi Filly Turf

Crap shoot of a race. Almost impossible to tel lthis erly in their careers, so I checked with some people who I trust in regards to breeding, and it looks as though Consequence was bred to win this race... "her mama, Educated Risk was a multiple G1 winner and finished 2nd in the 1992 BC Juvenile Fillies. Educated Risk is also a 1/2 sister to 1995 BC Distaff winner (and Hall of Famer) Inside Information. Consequence’s 3rd dam Clear Ceiling also produced G1 1000 Guineas winner Quick as Lightning, and the G1-placed turfster Infinite. " Works for me. Saucey Evening also has the pedigree, so she's in. And Sugar Mom is the only horse in this field that sports back to back 80+ BSF in her last 2, tough to ignore that.

1. Consequence 2. Sugar Mom 3. Saucey Evening 4. Maram

Juvi Filly

I'm excited to watch this race, as we may have a superstar in the making, approiately named Stardom Bound. Look at her race in the Oak Leaf http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q1zp2UrlcKU. Wow. Not much else really needs to be said. Deserving favorite for certain, but with 2 yo's, ya just never know...so with that, I'm at least going to try and find some other horses who may have a chance, albeit a small one. Van Lear Rose has improved every race, and if the pattern continues tomorrow, should hit the board at long odds. Doremifasollatido, beside the awesome name, has the speed figures to be a factor in the outcome.

1. Stardom Bound 2. Doremefasollatido 3. Van Lear Rose 4. CS Silk

Filly & Mare Turf

Fascinating race. Arguably the best on the card on either day. Talent is in abundence in this race. Where to begin.. The favorite, Wait A While, the Pletcher/Velazquez entry has never lost on the SA dirt, going 3-3 and coming off a win here 3 weeks ago in the G1 Yellow Ribbon. But in something almost unpresedented, 5, count um 5 horses are coming off G1 wins! Amazing. Forever Together is coming off an impressive win at Kee, adn 2 back beat Dynaforce, who just won a G1 at Belmont 3 weeks back. Folk Opera is a horse you have to respect just becasue of the owner, and absolutely wired the field at this same distance in the G1 Taylor. Halfway to Heaven has only really lost to superhorses Zarkava and Goldikova, Pure Clan is a head bob away from being undefeated on turf. But the horse I think everyone is sleeping on, is Mauralakana. If you cross out her last race on a soggy day at Belmont, you're looking at the horse who was at the top of every Filly Turf list in the world. While I'm not crazy about Desormeaux, this horse should have plently lef to cross the wire first. Truly impressive line-up in this one, and the race I'm most eager to see how it unfolds. My take? Folk Opera takes the lead and is chased down in the final furlong by Mauralakana, with Pure Clan right behind...

1. Mauralakana 2. Folk Opera 3. Pure Clan 4. Forever Together

Distaff

The big one. Where everyone who hasn't had the privledge, gets to see Zenyatta. She really has no equal, think LeBron when he was in high school, or the kid who had a full beard and biceps when you were playing little league. She is bigger, she is faster, and she has the most talent in this, or any other field you put her in. I honestly think on Poly she could take Curlin down tomorrow. Not dirt mind you, but Zenyatta loves, let me say again, LOVES the poly. I'm not going to bore you with the other deatils, I just hope a bunch of people overthink this race and I somehow get her at even money. But who else has a chance of at least 2nd? Put me down on Hystericalady. She'll be the early speed, and will force everyone to come catch her. She's a proven commodity, and you get her at a long price. While everyone is raving about Cocoa Beach, and her freakish workout, I think this is the horse people go wild about only to see her come a disappointing 4th. Looking good working out, and beating Zenyatta are 2 completly different animals. I'd rather side with the other Godolphin entry, Music Note. Only loss this year was by a head to Proud Spell after making a move 4 wide, thats respectable. She should also have a perfect stalking trip around the track behind Hystericalady. We have to also give mention to the defending champ, Ginger Punch, who won this race in the slop at Monmouth last year, but I think she hands over her crown to a VERY deseerving Zenyatta.

1. Zenyatta 2. Hystericalady 3. Music Note 4. Cocoa beach

enjoy the races! I'll post Saturdays picks tonight/tomorrow....