10th annual....

Last year's was AWFUL, but that's my fault. As most of you know, this years festivities will be EXTRA special. Possibilities are endless. For the uninformed, this will give you at least some basic idea who the fuck these guys are. Some things I've learned after all these years on how I put this together....

1. Don't believe ANYthing the week leading up to the draft. It's not in the temas best interest so say anything. The benefit of doing this so late this year, I know I'll have at least 1 pick 100% correct, and now I know the vikings won't have a 1st rounder.

2. When reading others mock's, if they all have the same guy going to the same team... they normally don't go there.

3. Running backs tend to slip. Backs have a short career in the NFL,
so picking one high in the first round is a huge investment.

4. While not nearly as glamorous, both offensive and defensive lines will be picked heavily in the first round.

5. After the 10th pick in the first round, it is all about how well
you know what each team needs. Study the team needs and forget about
the "Best Player Available" theory. It no longer applies. The draft
today is so even in terms of talent that teams just pick to fill their
needs. Put the player in the spot that fits those specific team needs.

with that in mind.... we're off.

1) Miami - Jake Long, OT, Michigan. I feel confident with this one. Honestly, they signed him at a discount price for a #1 pick. I haven't heard a negative thing about the guy, but then again, I didn't hear anything bad about Robert Gallery when he went top 3 to Oakland a few years ago, and he SUCKS. I DO know the OL coach in Miami is terrific (he used to coach the Bolts). So if anyone can get the most out of this guy, it's him. Miami was in dire straights for OT, as their line had little to no talent returning from next year. Solid choice for them.

2) St Louis - Chris Long, DE, Virginia. This is arguably the swing pick for the "blue chippers". I think they wanted Jake Long, but now this pick is almost assurd to go defensive line. Rumors are, they LOVE Glen Dorsey, but they only had 31 sacks last year, and now, pairing him with last years 1st rounder Adam Carriker, they should be able to put more pressure on the QB. I've red they are unimpressed with Vernon Gholston, so it's between Long and Dorsey, based off of need, they go with Long.

3) Atlanta - Glen Dorsey, DT, LSU - Chatter recently that the Falcons are passing on Matt Ryan, and in a nice set up for them, Dorsey is still available. He's a force. And much like the Rams, they are protecting their first round, in this case Jamaal Anderson, from last year. They don't have a need at DE with Abraham on the other side, if healthy, this is a solid defensive line, and much needed for the falcons to start an identity.

4) Oakland - Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio St - Almost impossible to tell what Al Davis wants. He's given out some obscene contracts in the offseason, but he loves freakish physical specimins, and Gholston fits the bill. He would be a needed presence, and puts young talent on 3 levels of the defense with Morrison at LB, and Huff at safety.

5) Kansas City - Brandon Albert, OG, Virginia. Now the owners of 13 picks, and another hole to fill by trading Allen to the Vike's, they would have loved to see Gholston or to a lesser degree Chris Long drop, but they have numerous holes to fill. I don't think they go with Ryan, as they still like Croyle, but need to protect him. Debate over who is the 2nd ranked prospect between Alberts and Ryan Clady, but conventional wisdom says go with intelligence, and Clady was rumord to score terrible on the Wonderlic test, while Alberts impressed. They say he transitions to OT in the NFL, and that's the only justifible reason for selecting a guard in the top 5. 2 guys from UVA in the top 5, unreal.

6) New York Jets - Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas. Offensive explosion. Thomas Jones was solid but not spectacular last year, and this guy can make just about any QB look good. Run DMC is a game changer and a much needed spark for a boring Jets offense. The interesting subplot here is how much they HATE the Pats, who pick directly after them. They will do whatever they can to screw them, and thats always fun to watch.

7)New England - Keith Rivers - LB, USC. Odds are pretty good you see a trade here as both the Saints and Bengals want Sedrick Ellis pretty bad, and a team who is high on Matt Ryan would make a move, but since it's impossible to predict trades (like picking players is easy /sarcasm), we are sticking with original teams. Don't believe the hype that NE is taking a corner, ol Bill struck out with his last 1st round corner and Asante Samuel was a 3rd or 4th rounder, so he knows they are deep and available. Rivers brings youth to a VERY old LB corps, and is universally acknowledged as the top rated LB in the draft.

8) Baltimore - Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College. Dream scenario for the Ravens. People with purple camo pants rejoice! BIG time need (even though I think Troy Smith is a decent QB), and he competes for a starting job from day 1. I don't know if it's likely the top QB in the draft falls to 8, but I'm not huge on Ryan unlike most.

9) Cincy - Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC. Much like Ryan, I doubt Ellis or Cincy even picks at 9, but again, no trades, so be assured that Cincy picks a defensive player. They are high on Ellis, and considering he's too "short" to play in a 3-4 defense like the 3 teams before the Bengals pick, Cincy's 4-3 is a perfect fit and a perfect need.

10) Saints - Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy. Again, rumors, they are moving up to draft Dorsey or Ellis. But they also have rumors to trade Roman Harper (their stud safety) for Shockey, which is just nuts. If they DON'T move up, I'd say Rivers would be their top option, if he's off the board, like I have him, they get their pick of all the corners. Scouts have McKelvin rated #1.

Top 10 is done, you still with me? The odds are good we will have some dance party usa around pick 15, so at least bear with me until that....

11) Bills - Devin Thomas, WR, Mich St. They have made it known that they covet a big target oposite Lee Evans. Thomas has seperated himself as the #1 WR, and at 6'2ish, that'll do for Buffalo.

12) Denver - Ryan Clady, OT, Boise St. 2 things here, I like Denver to a) trade down or b) trade up. Not a lot of people talk about this, but Shanny has no problems trading up to get a new toy, and when he moved up for Cutler, if he wasn't there, he wanted Larence Maroney. So Rashard Mendenhall is a real possibility. But Denver's line is old and not very good. A pass rusher like Harvey is a possibility. I'll go Clady, who people have as the next best offensive tackle.

13) Carolina - Chris Williams, OT, Vandy. Again, it's either offensive tackle here or they go Derrick Harvey, since Peppers got the David Duval-itis and started sucking big time for no reason. They'll see if last year was a fluke or not before the spend a top 15 pick on DE though.

14) Da Bears - Jeff Otah, OT, Pitt. VERY possible they take Mendenhall here, since he's an Illini. But benson has them blind, he may have nude pictures of Lovie Smith or something. Their o line sucks, and Otah did a great job of shutting down the #1 DE in Chris Long when they went heads up.

15) Lions - Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida. Inser WR joke here, or as the lads at ksk did so well (. But don't read that until you finish this. You should be reading it everyday anyway, it's hilarious. Now people everywhere have the Leo's taking Mendenhall, but remember the rules from above a lot apply here, RB's slip, and if everyone has the same guy.... Defensive linemen are the tits. Harvey is no exception. Marinelli knows he needs to fix the front 7. Mayo is also a possibility here.

16) Buzzsaw - Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Ilini. Simply too good to pass up. Cardinals need a corner, but there is enough depth there to wait until round 2. Mendenhall grades higher than Run DMC on some scout boards, and Edge James got the 30 year old virus. This kid is REALLY good. See Rose Bowl 2008.

17) Chiefs (from Vikings) - Phillip Merling, DE, Clemson. Goodbye Allen and your DUI's and hello to a guy who is a top 10 talent, but a guy many teams are afraid of due to hernia surgery. I like Kansas City making this trade, as Allen made it clear he wasn't signing with them long term, they get his replacement and a couple 3rd rounders in return. Not a bad deal.

18) Texans - Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida. They have a need at corner, and they get the next best after Mckelvin. If this pick pans out, the Texans may be very good next year. Crazy thought.

19) Iggles - Limas Sweed, WR, Texas. Andy Reid likes drafting guys on both lines, but no one is worth it at this pick, so they give McNabb a chance to succeed. This may be DeSean Jackson, but I think they'll go with the taller of WR's for a red zone target. Rumors are the Sheppard may be history, but with Samuel in the fold, I don't see them spending a top 20 pick on corner.

20) Tampa - Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas. Cue up rawkus records and Talib beats. Brian Kelly is gone, and Ronde Barber is old. They need corner help. Since they passed on Calvin Johnson last year and went DE, they may pass up corner needs to go WR, but I'm going with young on defense again. It's needed. A trade is a VERY real possibility for a team like Atlanta trying to get a QB.

21) Skins - Kentwan Balmer, DT, UNC. /Tips hat to maj. They may go with a wideout, but both lines need to be addressed, he's the #3 DT behind Dorsey and Ellis, projected to go mid 20's so this isn't a real reach.

22) Dallas - Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas. Everyone knows Jones wants to add a RB and went to the Ark, so this makes a lot of sense. Jones is used to being in a RBBC (he was teamed up with Run DMC the last 2 years), and this kid is a nice compliment to Marion Jones. They need a corner, but hae another pick and there is depth there, Jones will make sure he gets Jones.

23) Steelers - Gosder Cherilus, OT, Boston College. Had a less than stellar senior year, but they had him at LT, he's a natural RT and will be a solid pro there, which is where Pitt will play him. Pitt needs a LOT of help on the offensive line.

24) Titans - DeSean Jackson, WR, Cal. If they had to pick, they'd want to team up VY and Limas Sweed again, but since he's gone, I'm going Jackson, who's faster than Sweed. He also gives them a dimension of a dynamic punt returner, who they have missed since the days of Pac Man. Defensive line is a possibility as well, since they lost 3 guys to free agency.

almost done....

25) Seahawks - Dustin Keller, TE, Purdue. They need to add another dimension to their offense, and TE is that fit, Keller is a lot like Captain Chaos in DC for someone who is in the H-back mold.

26) Jax - Calais Campbell, DE, Miami. Again, this may have trade all over it for a team looking to score a QB like Brohm or Flacco. By the way, we are ABSOLUTELY doing SoCo lime shots when they draft big Joe Flacco from our fighting Blue hens.

27) Super Chargers - Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon. Teams have been afraid of the turf toe, but since SDSC don't have any pressing needs, they replace the back-up RB with a big time talent. Think Michael Turner 2.0.

28) Dallas - Dominque Rogers-Cromartie, CB, Ten St., Just like we talked about, it's CB here for the 'Boys, I don't know if he lasts this long, but if his last name was Rogers-Smith, I don't know if he'd have this much buzz. Just like if I sell this draft and I change my name to King-Kiper....

29) 49ers - Dan Connor, LB, WE ARE... Penn St, Need a helper bee for Mr. Willis, Connor fits the bill perfectly, if they are high on a remaining WR, they may go that direction as well...

30) Packers - Brandon Flowers, CB, VaTech. Harris and Woodson are old, and they have NO depth at corner, but considering this is the division of Tavarious Jackson, Jon Kitna/Drew Stanton, and Sexy Rexy, they may not need one.

31) Pats - HA HA (/nelson from the Simpsons voice)

32) G-Men - Tyrell Johnson, S, Ark St. All time sack leader in his conf as a safety is impressive, kid also runs a 4.4. Hellllloooo 1st round.

There ya have it. Nothing to do now except for sit back and watch the fun, make fun of picks, and assign silly "grades" after the draft before they play a single down of professional football. Oh yeah, drinking copious amounts of liquor too.

See ya Saturday.....